Passenger Forecasting Fundamentals

This course provides airport personnel with the essential knowledge needed to generate and interpret air traffic forecasts using alternative forecasting techniques. Aviation traffic forecasts are the cornerstone of an airport to base business decisions on. Credible forecasts define the demand for infrastructure and the likely terminal capacity requirements that will need to be addressed – airside, groundside and everywhere in between.  They help define the conditions that trigger infrastructure improvements in a way that can be readily understood by key stakeholders who are asked to make capital investment decisions and those that finance these investments. They also form the basis of projecting the costs and aeronautical/ non-aeronautical revenues, needed to evaluate the financial implications of capital expenditure projects.

Learning Objectives

Upon completing this course, participants will be able to:

• Learn about the industry drivers that influence air travel demand and how they influence forecasts
• Understand what data sources are used in preparing forecasts
• Identify the pros and cons of competition between airports and airlines and how to apply these to forecasts
• Develop reliable and comprehensive set of traffic forecasts that may be used for short, medium and long-term planning for an airport
• Prepare forecasts for annual forecasts of passengers (E/D and O/D), departing seat capacity, aircraft movements and cargo in aggregate and by sector
• Understand how airline strategies and new air service opportunities affect traffic forecasts
• Forecast passengers and key elements to consider during the pandemic and recovery period

Target Audience

• Airport Staff including: Director / Executive / Finance / Marketing / Board Members
• Airport Management Consultants
• Airline Staff
• Airport Planners

Course Content

• Traffic data sources used with air traffic forecasts
• Traffic segmentations
• Competition by airports and airlines
• Influencing factors and key industry drivers
• Forecasting methodologies overview and when and how to use each
• The pros and cons of competition between airports and airlines
• Key elements to consider during the pandemic and recovery period